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#718090
Sun 07 Apr 2024 06:01:AM
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Joined: Feb 2001
Posts: 381,903
Launch Director
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OP
Launch Director
Joined: Feb 2001
Posts: 381,903 |
SPC Apr 7, 2024 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective OutlookSPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Sun Apr 07 2024
Valid 071200Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF FAR EAST TEXAS INTO THE LOWER/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible during the late afternoon to mid-evening from parts of far east Texas into the lower/mid Mississippi Valley.
...Synopsis... A deep mid/upper-level cyclone initially centered over the Nebraska Sand Hills vicinity is forecast to gradually weaken and move northeastward through the day. A related surface low will also gradually weaken as it moves from eastern NE toward northwest/north-central IA. A trailing front will move eastward across parts of the mid MS Valley into the ArkLaTex region.
...Lower/Mid Mississippi Valley vicinity... Low-level moistening in advance of the cold front will allow for weak to moderate destabilization across parts of the lower/mid MS Valley, with MLCAPE generally increasing into the 500-1000 J/kg range this afternoon. Moderately strong midlevel flow will support effective shear of 45-55 kt, resulting in a conditionally favorable supercell environment. However, with stronger large-scale ascent displaced to the north of the better instability, and only weak to modest midlevel lapse rates expected regionwide, storm coverage and intensity will likely be limited to some extent.
While it may take some time for storms to mature, a couple of supercells could evolve by late afternoon into early evening across parts of the lower/mid MS Valley, with more isolated development eventually possible into far east TX and western LA. Low-level shear/SRH will be sufficient for a tornado or two, if mature supercells can be sustained. Otherwise, isolated hail and strong/damaging gusts could accompany the strongest storms, before the threat wanes by late evening.
...Iowa/northern MO... Low-topped convection may develop this afternoon along an occluded front that will extend across parts of IA into northern MO/western IL. Guidance varies regarding the extent of diurnal heating and destabilization near this front. If sufficient heating and steepening of low-level lapse rates can occur, then there could be a nonzero threat for a brief tornado where vorticity is maximized near the boundary. Confidence in this scenario remains too low to include probabilities at this time.
..Dean/Bentley.. 04/07/2024
Read morehttps://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1200.html
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Entire Thread
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SPC Apr 7, 2024 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
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