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#718091
Sun 07 Apr 2024 06:02:AM
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Joined: Feb 2001
Posts: 381,903
Launch Director
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Joined: Feb 2001
Posts: 381,903 |
SPC Apr 7, 2024 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective OutlookSPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CDT Sun Apr 07 2024
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS...
...SUMMARY... Multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms should develop from early afternoon Monday through Tuesday morning across a large portion of Texas, into south Oklahoma, southwest Arkansas, and west Louisiana. A few tornadoes, scattered large to very large hail, and isolated severe wind gusts will be possible.
...Synopsis... A mid/upper low will drift east-northeast across the Upper Midwest while a separate shortwave trough digs over the Southwest before pivoting along the border with northwest Mexico. Low-level warm theta-e advection will persist across much of the South-Central States through the period. The primary low-level jet will be centered from the northwest Gulf across east TX into the Ark-La-Tex and Ark-La-Miss. Mid-level height falls attendant to the Southwest trough will increase across the west TX vicinity in the early morning Tuesday.
...Southern Great Plains... Strengthening low-level warm theta-e advection from the northwest Gulf should yield increasing thunderstorm coverage by early afternoon, along the northeast periphery of an intensifying elevated mixed layer across west/central TX. Guidance does differ with how far west and south this initial convection will develop into central TX, but a favorable environment for at least a few supercells should evolve from near the I-35 corridor across a portion of east TX. The impinging of steep mid-level lapse rates and very fast upper-level flow will foster an elongated hodograph within the largest portion of the buoyancy profile. This will support a threat for very large hail, generally favored along the southwest part of the overall convective plume as a cluster convective mode dominates with northern extent. Low-level hodograph curvature will also be sufficient for a tornado threat, especially towards early evening as winds slowly increase.
Separate areas of convective development should be focused closer to the dryline in west TX and its intersection with the effective warm front/surface trough into southwest OK during the evening, and in another round during the early morning Tuesday. Convective development is most probable in the early evening over the northwest TX to southwest OK vicinity, with less confidence southward in west TX. This development will be high based initially along the fringe of the moisture return. Outflow-dominated supercells will be capable of producing large to very large hail and isolated severe gusts.
MUCAPE values within the warm-moist sector that remains convectively undisturbed should build through the period as mid-level lapse rates become very steep (around 9 C/km) across west TX and moist advection continues to surge west-northwest. Guidance differs on the degree of overnight development as mid-level height falls increase late. The 00Z ECMWF remains consistent with prior runs in developing convection across west TX by 12Z Tuesday, which now has support of the 00Z HRW-FV3. The strongly sheared and very steep lapse rate environment will yield a primary threat of very large hail in any sustained supercells.
..Grams.. 04/07/2024
Read morehttps://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk_0600.html
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SPC Apr 7, 2024 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
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