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#721533
Fri 03 May 2024 04:41:PM
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Joined: Feb 2001
Posts: 381,903
Launch Director
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OP
Launch Director
Joined: Feb 2001
Posts: 381,903 |
SPC May 3, 2024 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective OutlookSPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 AM CDT Fri May 03 2024
Valid 031630Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS...
...SUMMARY... Giant hail, a few tornadoes, and severe gusts are possible over parts of west-central Texas this afternoon and evening.
...Southern Great Plains... Visible satellite imagery and morning surface analysis shows a very moist airmass across the Edwards Plateau northward to a residual effective boundary draped northwest to southeast across the TX South Plains into central TX. Near and south of the boundary, low-level moisture approaching the daily climatological maximum for several raob sites (reference 12z DRT, BRO, CRP) will contribute to a large moisture reservoir across west TX by mid-late afternoon. A north-south dryline intersecting the differential heating zone/residual boundary will help focus thunderstorm development later this afternoon/evening. Insolation through peak heating will contribute to very large to extreme buoyancy (3000-4000+ J/kg MLCAPE) across the Enhanced Risk area. The nose of a westerly 250-mb speed max (70-90 kt) will move into west TX later this afternoon/evening acting to elongate hodographs. Expecting heating and weak convergence in the vicinity of the aforementioned surface boundaries to contribute to a weakened cap by mid afternoon. Widely scattered to scattered storms are expected to develop through the early evening according to the latest model guidance. Large to giant hail (max size 3-4+ inches in diameter), a few tornadoes, and severe gusts are possible across the TX South Plains extending southeastward into portions of the Big Country. Depending on storm-scale interactions and local augmentation of the low-level wind profile, a strong tornado cannot be ruled out, but uncertainty at these scales precludes a delineated risk area. Some upscale growth into a severe cluster is expected across west-central TX this evening with severe gusts perhaps becoming the primary hazard late.
...Central Plains... No change in forecast thinking for a large hail/severe gust risk area across the central Plains. Though nowhere nearly as moist as the TX outlook area, a diurnally destabilized plume of moist advection should support a secondary relative max in severe potential along/ahead of the cold front and dryline from parts of eastern CO to western/northern KS and southern NE. Convection should develop by mid/late afternoon in a regional convergence maximum near and northeast of the surface low, with MLCINH weakened by favorable diurnal heating. Surface dewpoints in the 40s to low 50s F should be common, with steep surface-500-mb lapse rates, 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE and well-mixed subcloud layers. Effective-shear magnitudes around 40-50 kt indicate potential for organized convection -- both in quasi-linear form near the front and initially discrete (but later merging upscale) off the dryline. Though activity will encounter a more-stable boundary layer with time and eastward extent across KS/NE, at least marginal severe-gust potential may last overnight as far eastward as parts of the Missouri Valley region.
..Smith/Barnes/Squitieri.. 05/03/2024
Read morehttps://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1630.html
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