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#718427
Tue 09 Apr 2024 04:59:AM
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Joined: Feb 2001
Posts: 381,903
Launch Director
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OP
Launch Director
Joined: Feb 2001
Posts: 381,903 |
SPC MD 390MD 0390 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR TX PERMIAN BASIN VICINITY
Mesoscale Discussion 0390 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1059 PM CDT Mon Apr 08 2024
Areas affected...TX Permian Basin vicinity
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 090359Z - 090630Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorm development will be possible overnight, with a threat of large hail.
DISCUSSION...Low-level moisture continues to stream northwestward late this evening into portions of the TX Permian Basin region. Meanwhile, WV and IR imagery suggests that ascent related to the deep upper-level trough over the Southwest is beginning to overspread the region. While timing remains uncertain, storm development will become increasingly likely overnight, especially near/north of a southward-moving cold front. Steep midlevel lapse rates, MUCAPE increasing into the 1000-2000 J/kg range, and effective shear of 40+ kts will support elevated supercell potential, with an attendant threat of large hail in the 1.5 - 2 inch diameter range.
Severe-storm coverage remains somewhat uncertain overnight and could remain rather isolated, but eventual watch issuance is possible given the potential for elevated supercells.
..Dean/Hart.. 04/09/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF...
LAT...LON 32360300 32700297 33040291 33200177 33110124 32510060 31860073 31130112 30860168 30770276 31710295 32360300
Read morehttps://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0390.html
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