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#718727
Thu 11 Apr 2024 05:05:PM
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Joined: Feb 2001
Posts: 381,903
Launch Director
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OP
Launch Director
Joined: Feb 2001
Posts: 381,903 |
SPC Apr 11, 2024 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective OutlookSPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1202 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF EASTERN OREGON...IDAHO...AND NORTHERN NEVADA...
...SUMMARY... A few marginally severe wind gusts and hail are possible over northern Nevada, eastern Oregon, and western Idaho during the late afternoon to early evening Friday.
...Synopsis and Discussion... Upper ridging will shift into the Plains as a large upper trough gradually shifts east across the Mid Atlantic and Northeast, resulting in stable offshore flow. To the west of the upper ridge, a deep upper low will drop south just off the West Coast, with a belt of moderate mid to high level winds from CA into OR/WA/ID.
At the surface, a trough will develop during the afternoon from near the OR/ID/NV border into MT, with increasing southerly winds. Midlevel temperatures even well east of the upper low will remain cool, with -18 C at 500 mb common across the region. As such, heating along with increasing midlevel moisture within the southwest flow regime will likely result in scattered storms from northern NV into eastern OR and across southern ID after about 21Z.
Forecast soundings during this time reveal over 500 J/kg MUCAPE along with a deeply mixed boundary layer. Given the 40+ kt effective shear especially over northern areas, this should support a few cells or bows capable of locally strong winds and hail nearing severe criteria.
..Jewell.. 04/11/2024
Read morehttps://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk_1730.html
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SPC Apr 11, 2024 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
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