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'There are a lot of questions, but....': Pandya
Webmaster
Yesterday at 06:35 PM
Kolkata Knight Riders' bowling attack worked cohesively to secure a 24-run victory against five-time champions Mumbai Indians in an IPL match on Friday. This marked KKR's first away win in Mumbai in 12 years. The last time they won there, team owner Shah Rukh Khan had a dispute with security staff, resulting in a three-year ban from the venue. KKR's win brought their total to 14 points and kept them in the running for a top-two finish. Source: 'There are a lot of questions, but....': Pandya
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SPC May 3, 2024 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Webmaster
Yesterday at 04:41 PM
SPC May 3, 2024 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective OutlookSPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 AM CDT Fri May 03 2024
Valid 031630Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS...
...SUMMARY... Giant hail, a few tornadoes, and severe gusts are possible over parts of west-central Texas this afternoon and evening.
...Southern Great Plains... Visible satellite imagery and morning surface analysis shows a very moist airmass across the Edwards Plateau northward to a residual effective boundary draped northwest to southeast across the TX South Plains into central TX. Near and south of the boundary, low-level moisture approaching the daily climatological maximum for several raob sites (reference 12z DRT, BRO, CRP) will contribute to a large moisture reservoir across west TX by mid-late afternoon. A north-south dryline intersecting the differential heating zone/residual boundary will help focus thunderstorm development later this afternoon/evening. Insolation through peak heating will contribute to very large to extreme buoyancy (3000-4000+ J/kg MLCAPE) across the Enhanced Risk area. The nose of a westerly 250-mb speed max (70-90 kt) will move into west TX later this afternoon/evening acting to elongate hodographs. Expecting heating and weak convergence in the vicinity of the aforementioned surface boundaries to contribute to a weakened cap by mid afternoon. Widely scattered to scattered storms are expected to develop through the early evening according to the latest model guidance. Large to giant hail (max size 3-4+ inches in diameter), a few tornadoes, and severe gusts are possible across the TX South Plains extending southeastward into portions of the Big Country. Depending on storm-scale interactions and local augmentation of the low-level wind profile, a strong tornado cannot be ruled out, but uncertainty at these scales precludes a delineated risk area. Some upscale growth into a severe cluster is expected across west-central TX this evening with severe gusts perhaps becoming the primary hazard late.
...Central Plains... No change in forecast thinking for a large hail/severe gust risk area across the central Plains. Though nowhere nearly as moist as the TX outlook area, a diurnally destabilized plume of moist advection should support a secondary relative max in severe potential along/ahead of the cold front and dryline from parts of eastern CO to western/northern KS and southern NE. Convection should develop by mid/late afternoon in a regional convergence maximum near and northeast of the surface low, with MLCINH weakened by favorable diurnal heating. Surface dewpoints in the 40s to low 50s F should be common, with steep surface-500-mb lapse rates, 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE and well-mixed subcloud layers. Effective-shear magnitudes around 40-50 kt indicate potential for organized convection -- both in quasi-linear form near the front and initially discrete (but later merging upscale) off the dryline. Though activity will encounter a more-stable boundary layer with time and eastward extent across KS/NE, at least marginal severe-gust potential may last overnight as far eastward as parts of the Missouri Valley region.
..Smith/Barnes/Squitieri.. 05/03/2024
Read morehttps://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1630.html
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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Webmaster
Yesterday at 02:46 PM
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather OutlookSPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0945 AM CDT Fri May 03 2024
Valid 031700Z - 041200Z
An Elevated risk area has been introduced to portions of southeast New Mexico. Morning surface observations and 12 UTC soundings from ABQ and EPZ show very dry conditions at/near the surface with RH values generally in the teens to low 20s across parts of far southwest TX and south-central NM. This air mass should spread northeast behind an eastward migrating dryline this afternoon. Weak mid and upper-level winds will limit the overall magnitude of the fire weather potential, but ensemble guidance shows reasonably high confidence of 15-20 mph winds co-located with the driest conditions. Furthermore, recent fuel guidance suggests ERCs generally reside in the 80-90th percentile across this region after several days of limited rainfall, which should support the fire weather concern. Elevated conditions are also expected further north into south-central CO, but will be more localized and driven by terrain-induced winds.
..Moore.. 05/03/2024
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1225 AM CDT Fri May 03 2024/
...Synopsis... A low-amplitude shortwave trough will move through northern Mexico today and eject into West Texas by early tomorrow morning. A weak surface trough is expected to develop in the southern High Plains as a result. Portions of the Southwest will experience dry and breezy conditions for period during the afternoon. Given the short duration of these conditions, only locally elevated fire weather concerns are expected.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read morehttps://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/fire_wx/fwdy1.html
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