SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP049<br />ARLP049 Propagation de K7VVV<br /><br />ZCZC AP49<br />QST de W1AW <br />Propagation Forecast Bulletin 49 ARLP049<br />>From Tad Cook, K7VVV<br />Seattle, WA November 27, 2002<br />To all radio amateurs <br /><br />SB PROP ARL ARLP049<br />ARLP049 Propagation de K7VVV<br /><br />This is a shortened propagation bulletin due to the Thanksgiving<br />holiday. The solar and geomagnetic data normally in this bulletin<br />should appear Monday, December 2 in Propagation Forecast Bulletin<br />ARLP050.<br /><br />Active geomagnetic conditions plagued the ARRL Phone Sweepstakes,<br />although participants tell me that Sunday improved over Saturday.<br />Sunspot counts and solar flux declined quite markedly, with Monday's<br />solar flux of 137 the lowest since October 2.<br /><br />On Sunday a coronal mass ejection erupted, and this could cause some<br />disruption over the next few days. A cloud of energy swept past<br />earth at 2150z on Tuesday and met a south-tilting interplanetary<br />magnetic field, indicating more geomagnetic instability to come.<br /><br />Currently the predicted planetary A index for Wednesday through<br />Saturday is 20, 15, 15 and 12. Solar flux will likely rise again,<br />with predicted flux values of 145, 150, 155 and 160 for the same<br />period. Solar flux is expected to rise to just shy of 200 by<br />mid-December.<br />NNNN<br />/EX