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#709898
Tue 23 Jan 2024 12:33:AM
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Joined: Feb 2001
Posts: 381,903
Launch Director
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OP
Launch Director
Joined: Feb 2001
Posts: 381,903 |
SPC Jan 23, 2024 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective OutlookSPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0630 PM CST Mon Jan 22 2024
Valid 230100Z - 231200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected.
...01z Update...
Several southern-stream short-wave troughs will influence convective potential from coastal CA into the lower MS Valley tonight. One weak short wave is ejecting across OK/east TX early this evening while a secondary disturbance is advancing across northern Mexico. Isolated thunderstorms have developed along the southern influence of the lead feature along the upper TX Coast where modified Gulf air mass has returned. Additional convection is now developing across northern Mexico, south of the Big Bend, within the left exit region of an approaching midlevel speed max. While the primary LLJ will shift into the lower OH Valley with the lead trough, southerly 850mb flow is expected to persist across TX tonight. Additional elevated convection is expected to develop in response to the northern Mexico feature as it approaches southwest TX later tonight. The boundary layer will likely remain a bit too cool along the TX Coast to warrant much potential for surface-based storms, thus the severe risk appears minimal.
Upstream, isolated thunderstorms have developed across portions of CA, in a regime of steepening lapse rates ahead of a short wave trough. Convective threat will spread southeast tonight as the short wave digs into northwestern Mexico and the lower CO River Valley.
..Darrow.. 01/23/2024
Read morehttps://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_0100.html
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