Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CST Thu Mar 07 2024

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE CAROLINAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing both tornadoes
and damaging winds appear possible Saturday across parts of the
Southeast into the Carolinas.

...Southeast into the Carolinas...
An upper trough with 80-100 kt mid-level speed max will move quickly
northeastward across the eastern CONUS on Saturday. With the
southern-stream portion of this troughing likely to phase with the
northern stream, a more amplified upper trough should eventually
evolve. At the surface, the primary low should also develop
northeastward across the OH Valley/Midwest, while a secondary low
may also form and gradually deepen along the spine of the
southern/central Appalachians through the day. At least mid 60s
surface dewpoints are forecast to advance quickly northward across
parts of GA/SC/NC ahead of a cold front.

Strong to severe thunderstorms will probably be ongoing Saturday
morning across parts of AL into the FL Panhandle and western GA.
This activity should spread quickly east-northeastward through the
day in tandem with the destabilizing warm sector. Even though
mid-level lapse rates should remain fairly poor, just modest diurnal
heating should allow for weak instability to develop and maintain
robust updraft intensity. Strong (40-50 kt) south-southwesterly
low-level flow should promote fast thunderstorm motions, along with
potential for severe/damaging downdraft winds with any
clusters/bowing line segments that can form/persist.

There should also be some potential for supercells given the
forecast strength of the low/mid-level flow and related low/
deep-layer shear. Related threat for tornadoes should continue from
Saturday morning through at least early Saturday evening from GA
into the Carolinas wherever convection can remain surface based.
Given tendency in most guidance to show appreciable inland
destabilization and greater low-level moisture farther north into
SC/NC, the 15% severe area and corresponding Slight Risk have been
expanded northward into these areas.

..Gleason.. 03/07/2024