Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0232 PM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024

Valid 212000Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTH...CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may produce a few instances
of hail in the inch to inch-and-a-half range, and locally strong
gusts across parts of northern and central Texas this through this
evening. Additional strong storms overnight may produce locally
strong gusts and small hail across southeast Texas into southwest
Louisiana.

...20z Update...

The only changes with the 20z update were to adjust the 10 percent
general thunderstorm probabilities based on latest trends and short
term guidance. Severe probabilities are unchanged across TX into
southwest LA. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are expected
to develop through late afternoon and into this evening, posing a
risk for a few instances of large hail and strong gusts. For more
information on short term severe potential reference MCD 0267.

While one or more bowing clusters is expected to develop southeast
toward southeast TX/southwest LA, convection is expected to remain
elevated given a poor low-level thermodynamic environment and
increasing boundary-layer inhibition during the nighttime hours.
This should limit a greater damaging wind risk overnight.

..Leitman.. 03/21/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024/

...Northern and central Texas to southwestern Louisiana...
Widespread morning convection, and associated/expansive low cloud
cover, persists per recent radar and visible satellite imagery
across roughly the eastern half of Texas.  Farther to the
west/northwest, from the Big Country southward toward the Concho
Valley, and areas west, lack of cloud cover will permit diurnal
heating, which -- given 50s dewpoints -- will contribute to modest
(500 to 1000 J/kg) mixed-layer CAPE this afternoon.  

As ascent associated with the upper disturbance currently moving
across eastern New Mexico spreads into Texas, expect storms to
develop -- initially cellularly but then possibly growing upscale
into eastward-moving bands.  Small hail appears likely, but the
low-topped nature of the storms, the rather limited CAPE, and
somewhat marginal deep-layer shear suggests that more intense,
rotating updrafts may be somewhat difficult to be sustained. 
Therefore, coverage of severe-caliber hail (likely limited to the
inch to inch-and-a-half range) should remain isolated.  As such,
will maintain only MRGL/5% risk at this time.  A few stronger wind
gusts will also be possible, but likewise it appears that 5%
probability is appropriate per current expectations.

Storms will spread eastward across eastern Texas overnight, and
eventually into southwestern Louisiana, but will be moving into
areas where widespread convection will have occurred, which should
limit any more appreciable severe potential.