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#716571
Thu 21 Mar 2024 05:24:PM
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Joined: Feb 2001
Posts: 381,903
Launch Director
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OP
Launch Director
Joined: Feb 2001
Posts: 381,903 |
SPC Mar 21, 2024 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective OutlookSPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND SOUTH FLORIDA...
...SUMMARY... One or two clusters of strong thunderstorms may impact portions of southern Florida and the Keys Friday into Friday evening, accompanied by at least some risk for damaging winds and a brief tornado. More isolated strong to severe thunderstorm development may impact central and northeastern Gulf coastal areas into Friday night.
...Southeast States...
An upper trough within southern stream flow located over eastern OK/TX Friday morning will migrate east across the Southeast U.S. through early Saturday morning. Stronger deep-layer flow associated with the subtropical jet will mostly remain over the Gulf, though some stronger flow will impinge on the central Gulf Coast while also overspreading FL. 30-40 kt west/southwesterly flow within the warm conveyor ahead of the trough will support ongoing clusters of storms early in the period and through much of the evening across portions of the Southeast. At the surface, a weak low will shift east near the central Gulf Coast through the day before lifting northeast into GA overnight. This will maintain a cool/dry airmass inland from the coast, especially across MS/AL, with some modest moisture return ahead of the low across the FL Peninsula into GA.
While CAMs guidance varies in location and timing of convective features, the overall consensus is that one cluster of storms over the western Gulf will likely affect south FL and the Keys during the morning into early afternoon. Meanwhile another cluster will likely traverse east in the vicinity of the central Gulf Coast during the morning and afternoon. Another round of thunderstorms associated with an eastward-advancing cold front may then move across northern FL/southern GA after 06z while continued convection associated with warm advection impacts the coastal Carolinas during the nighttime hours.
How much destabilization can occur ahead of any of the aforementioned clusters of convection remains uncertain given limited diurnal heating, and generally modest mid and low-level lapse rates. Where/if stronger destabilization occurs, vertical shear characterized by 0-6 km effective shear magnitudes near 40 kt will support organized cells. Strong to locally damaging gusts will be the main hazard with this activity, though small hail or a brief spin-up also may be possible very near the coast.
..Leitman.. 03/21/2024
Read morehttps://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk_1730.html
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