Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0744 PM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024

Valid 020100Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms with very large hail (2-3 inch diameter or
greater), damaging gusts (60-80 mph) and a few tornadoes
(potentially up to EF2) are expected this evening into tonight from
north Texas and Oklahoma into the lower Ohio River Valley.

...01z Update...

Early-evening water-vapor imagery suggests the leading edge of
large-scale ascent is spreading across the southern High Plains, per
shallow, but deepening, midlevel convection that currently arcs from
the eastern TX Panhandle into northwest TX. Additionally, regional
radar data supports this with isolated lightning flashes recently
observed northwest of CDS. As the positive-tilt upper trough shifts
east tonight, surface cold front will advance to a position from
central IL-eastern OK-arcing into southern NM by the end of the
period.

Multiple corridors of ongoing severe convection are noted ahead of
the primary synoptic front, namely across IL/MO, northern OK, and
along the dryline over TX. 00z soundings along the severe corridor
exhibit substantial buoyancy and strong shear. OUN/FWD/SGF all favor
robust, long-lived rotating updrafts as steep lapse rates and strong
shear are noted. Latest thinking is additional severe convection may
yet evolve immediately ahead of the aforementioned ascent that is
spreading across the southern Plains. An elongated corridor of
strong/severe convection should remain focused tonight from OK/north
TX into the lower OH Valley.

..Darrow.. 04/02/2024