http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2002/09oct_leonidsforecast.htm <br />Meteor Storm Forecast<br />NASA Science News<br />October 9, 2002<br /><br />NASA scientists have just released new predictions for the 2002 Leonid<br />meteor storm.<br /><br />A New Mexican desert. A graveyard in West Virginia. The<br />International Space Station (ISS). What do these places have in common?<br />Experts say they're good spots to watch the 2002 Leonid meteor storm, which<br />is expected this year on Nov. 19th.<br /><br />"We've calculated meteor rates for 58 cities around the world and for the<br />space station," says Bill Cooke of the Marshall Space Flight Center's Space<br />Environments Team. "People who live in North America or Europe or onboard<br />the ISS are going to see a lot of Leonids next month."<br /><br />Leonid meteor storms happen when Earth plows through clouds of dusty debris<br />shed by comet 55/P Tempel-Tuttle. Right now Earth is heading for two such<br />clouds. "We'll collide with both of them on Tuesday, Nov. 19th," says Cooke.<br />"The first cloud will cause a flurry of meteors over Europe at about 0400<br />UT. We expect sky watchers in the countryside (away from bright city lights)<br />to see between 500 and 1000 Leonids per hour."<br /><br />Earth will plow into the second cloud about six hours later (1030 UT or 5:30<br />a.m. EST) and cause an even bigger outburst over North America. "Observers<br />here in the United States could see as many as 2000 per hour," he predicts.<br /><br />Other parts of the world will be sprinkled with Leonids, too, but nothing<br />like Europe or North America. If the predictions are correct, observers in<br />Asia, Australia, South America and much of Africa will count no more than a<br />few dozen bright meteors in a one-hour span.<br /><br /> 2002 Leonid Meteor Storm Predictions<br /> Click on the name of the city nearest your hometown. [sample]<br /> U.S. Cities Around the World<br /><br /> Albuquerque, Minneapolis, Aberdeen, Mexico City,<br /> NM MN Scotland Mexico<br /><br /> Anchorage, AK New Orleans, Amsterdam, the Moscow, Russia<br /> LA Netherlands<br /><br /> Atlanta, GA New York, NY Bangkok, Nairobi, Kenya<br /> Thailand<br /><br /> Bangor, ME Omaha, NE Beijing, China New Delhi,<br /> India<br /><br /> Boise, ID Philadelphia, Cairo, Egypt Paris, France<br /> PA<br /><br /> Boston, MA Phoenix, AZ Dublin, Perth,<br /> Ireland Australia<br /><br /> Chicago, IL Portland, OR Edinburgh, Reykjavik,<br /> Scotland Iceland<br /><br /> Rio de<br /> Cleveland, OH Raleigh, NC Frankfurt, Janeiro,<br /> Germany<br /> Brazil<br /><br /> Denver, CO Sacramento, CA Hong Kong Rome, Italy<br /><br /> Detroit, MI Salt Lake Istanbul, Santiago,<br /> City, UT Turkey Chile<br /><br /> Honolulu, HI Seattle, WA Jakarta, São Paulo,<br /> Indonesia Brazil<br /><br /> Houston, TX St. Louis, MO Jerusalem, Seoul, South<br /> Israel Korea<br /><br /> Las Vegas, NV Washington, Johannesburg, Stockholm,<br /> D.C. South Africa Sweden<br /><br /> Los Angeles, London,<br /> CA Wichita, KS England Tokyo, Japan<br /><br /> coming soon:<br /> Miami, FL . Manila, the Canadian<br /> Philippines<br /> cities<br /><br />Above: Bill Cooke of the NASA/MSFC Space Environments Group prepared these<br />city-by-city forecasts of Leonid activity in 2002. The colored curves denote<br />predictions by three teams (Asher-McNaught, Jenniskens, Lyytinen-Van<br />Flandern) who successfully forecast the 2001 storm. Note that the rates<br />(vertical axis) correspond to 15-minute intervals; also, all times<br />(horizontal axis) are local--that is, the time in the city specified. [more]<br /><br />Although millions of people will experience either the European outburst or<br />the North American outburst, only three people will see both: the crew of<br />the International Space Station.<br /><br />"The ISS will be flying over Europe during the first outburst," explains Rob<br />Suggs, leader of the Space Environments Team. "Then it will pass over North<br />America during the second outburst. Perfect timing!" Astronauts looking out<br />the station's windows could spot more meteors than anyone else.<br /><br />Meteor watching from the space station isn't like meteor watching from the<br />ground. On Earth we look up to see shooting stars. On the ISS they look<br />down. That's because meteoroids glow when they disintegrate in Earth's<br />atmosphere at an altitude of about 80 km. The ISS orbits Earth about 300 km<br />higher than that, so from the point of view of an astronaut meteors appear<br />underfoot. (Astronaut Frank Culbertson described his experience watching the<br />2001 Leonids from the ISS in Science@NASA's "Space Station Meteor Shower.")<br /><br />Observers on the ISS and on Earth will be equally bothered during this<br />year's shower by a glaring full Moon. "Moonlight will reduce the number of<br />Leonids seen by some factor between 2 and 5," says Cooke. "We took this into<br />account when we calculated our forecasts."<br /><br />Along the east coast of North America, the meteor outburst will happen just<br />before local dawn. "That's good," says Suggs, "because at that time of<br />night, the Moon will be low in the western sky. Try to find a dark observing<br />site where the Moon sets early behind tall buildings or surrounding hills."<br />A country graveyard, say, in one of the mountainous Appalachian states might<br />be an ideal spot, he laughs.<br /><br />In Europe and in western parts of North America, the Moon will be high in<br />the sky when the Leonids arrive. "That's not so good," he says. Moonlight<br />scattered from air molecules and aerosols (e.g., water droplets, dust and<br />pollution) makes the air glow and interferes with meteor watching. The glow<br />will be less in places where the air is dry and pollution-free. Suggs<br />recommends traveling to the desert, if possible, or to a mountain which<br />rises above the local aerosol layer. "A desert mountaintop would be the<br />perfect combination," he says.<br /><br />Indeed, that's where Suggs is going, to the Sacramento Mountains of southern<br />New Mexico. He's leading a team there to record the North American outburst<br />using image-intensified video cameras. "Our job," explains Suggs, "is to<br />improve meteoroid activity forecasts for spacecraft. Observing these showers<br />from Earth helps refine our models." Suggs will also have teams in Spain,<br />Alabama, the Canary Islands and Arizona, "so we'll be able to monitor both<br />peaks."<br /><br />"I'd rather watch the shower from the ISS," allows Suggs, but it could be<br />worse: New Mexico is ones of the best places on Earth to see the 2002<br />Leonids, and "it beats a graveyard any day."