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Hurricane Norman Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10

#466872 Thu 30 Aug 2018 02:47:PM

Joined: Feb 2001

Posts: 381,903

Los Angeles, USA

Webmaster

Launch Director

Webmaster

Launch Director

Joined: Feb 2001

Posts: 381,903

Los Angeles, USA

Issued at 1500 UTC THU AUG 30 2018



953 
FOPZ11 KNHC 301447
PWSEP1
                                                                    
HURRICANE NORMAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  10                
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162018               
1500 UTC THU AUG 30 2018                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NORMAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE   
17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 118.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
130 KTS...150 MPH...240 KM/H.                                       
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
15N 120W       34  1   6( 7)   5(12)   3(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)
 
20N 120W       34  1   3( 4)   1( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
15N 125W       34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)  48(52)  23(75)   1(76)   X(76)
15N 125W       50  X   X( X)   1( 1)  14(15)  24(39)   X(39)   X(39)
15N 125W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  16(20)   X(20)   X(20)
 
20N 125W       34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   8(13)   1(14)   X(14)
 
15N 130W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  20(20)  17(37)   X(37)
15N 130W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   9(13)   X(13)
15N 130W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   X( 7)
 
20N 130W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)  30(38)   1(39)
20N 130W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  12(13)   X(13)
20N 130W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   X( 7)
 
15N 135W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)   4(13)
15N 135W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
15N 135W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
20N 135W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  28(28)  34(62)
20N 135W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)  23(31)
20N 135W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  13(15)
 
25N 135W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)
 
15N 140W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
20N 140W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  24(25)
20N 140W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)
20N 140W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)
 
25N 140W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BROWN