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#709623
Mon 22 Jan 2024 05:20:AM
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Joined: Feb 2001
Posts: 381,903
Launch Director
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OP
Launch Director
Joined: Feb 2001
Posts: 381,903 |
SPC Jan 22, 2024 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective OutlookSPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2024
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected.
...Discussion...
Active southern stream is expected to dominate over the next few days. Multiple short-wave troughs will eject across northern Mexico toward the OH Valley which will encourage a substantial increase in PW values from TX into the central Gulf States. Initially, polar air mass will be reluctant to retreat from this region, but sustained low-level warm advection should eventually allow modified Gulf air mass to advance into the upper TX Coast and the lower MS Valley. Even so, surface-based parcels will likely struggle to be buoyant, and scattered convection that evolves during the day1 period should primarily be elevated. This activity will be modulated in large part by a LLJ that is expected to persist from south-central TX into the Arklatex region.
Another region where lightning is possible with the deepest convection is along the southern CA Coast into southern AZ. A strong midlevel speed max is forecast to dig southeast toward the Baja Peninsula. Steep lapse rates and cool midlevel temperatures will contribute to weak buoyancy along the cyclonic side of this jet. As a result, a few thunderstorms appear possible with the threat gradually spreading into southern AZ during the latter half of the period.
..Darrow/Thornton.. 01/22/2024
Read morehttps://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1200.html
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