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#718728
Thu 11 Apr 2024 07:54:PM
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Joined: Feb 2001
Posts: 381,903
Launch Director
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OP
Launch Director
Joined: Feb 2001
Posts: 381,903 |
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather OutlookSPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
Minor adjustments were made to the D2 Elevated to expand it further west into central New Mexico in accordance with latest trends in guidance. Localized critical fire weather will be possible in the lee of the high terrain across central and northeastern New Mexico. This is well supported in 12z HREF conditional probabilities. The overall spatial extent of this threat does not warrant inclusion of a Critical delineation at this time.
..Thornton.. 04/11/2024
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0214 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024/
...Synopsis... Fire weather conditions are anticipated across a broad swath of the Southwest and southern High Plains on Friday afternoon. However, the fire weather threat will most likely be focused across parts of New Mexico and the OK/TX Panhandles where the best overlap of fire weather conditions and receptive fuels is anticipated. Surface high pressure is forecast to shift from the central Plains into the northwest Gulf of Mexico. Concurrently, the approach of an upper wave off the southern CA coast will lead to broad surface pressure falls across the southern Great Basin into the southern High Plains, resulting in breezy pressure gradient winds.
...New Mexico and adjacent areas of the OK/TX Panhandles... Latest guidance continues to show a signal for 15-20 mph winds across a broad swath of eastern NM and west TX. Low-level trajectories emanating off the terrain of northern Mexico, combined with a recent frontal intrusion into the western Gulf, should maintain dry conditions across the southern High Plains with RH values in the 10-20% range. Elevated conditions are expected with localized critical conditions possible Friday afternoon. Despite the potential for widespread fire weather conditions, the risk area is confined to locations that have not seen wetting rainfall over the past few days (and hence should have the most receptive fuels). Based on recent fuel analyses, ERCs further west into the Southwest/Great Basin are near/below the 50th percentile, which precludes a more widespread risk area (though fuel trends will be monitored).
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
Read morehttps://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/fire_wx/fwdy2.html
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