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#720099
Sat 20 Apr 2024 07:54:PM
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Joined: Feb 2001
Posts: 381,903
Launch Director
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OP
Launch Director
Joined: Feb 2001
Posts: 381,903 |
SPC Apr 20, 2024 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective OutlookSPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024
Valid 202000Z - 211200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST...AND INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TEXAS...
...SUMMARY... Marginally severe storms capable of strong wind gusts and hail will be possible mainly this afternoon/evening across portions of central and south Texas, and from southern Mississippi to southern North Carolina.
No changed required for the 20Z update.
For more information see mesoscale discussion 498, 499, 500.
..Jewell.. 04/20/2024
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1112 AM CDT Sat Apr 20 2024/
...Synopsis... Mid-morning radar mosaics show a broad swath of elevated convection ongoing across the southern Plains ahead of an approaching upper-level wave. While a few instances of gusty winds and/or sub-severe hail will be possible with this activity, a slightly more robust severe threat will be focused along a surface cold front recently analyzed from the southern Appalachians to southern TX. Surface high pressure is expected to build east into the Plains/MS Valley through the day, which will nudge the cold front slowly southward over the next 24 hours. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along this boundary by mid-afternoon with a few strong/severe storms possible.
...Southern Gulf states to the Southeast... Mostly clear to partly cloud skies are noted along and ahead of the cold front from SC into southern AL/MS. Diurnal warming of a modestly moist air mass should yield MLCAPE values upwards of 1000 J/kg by early to mid-afternoon. Despite minimal inhibition, weak forcing for ascent along the front should support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms. Storm motions largely along the boundary should support initial cells growing upscale into clusters through the afternoon/evening. While low to mid-level winds are modest, 30-40 knot flow aloft may support sufficient deep-layer shear for a few more organized cells/clusters with an attendant hail risk. Damaging outflow gusts are also possible - especially across areas where surface temperatures can warm into the mid/upper 80s by peak heating. Based on 16 UTC observations, this appears most likely to occur across parts of GA into the Carolinas.
...Southern Texas... Two clusters of thunderstorms appear possible this afternoon and evening across southern Texas. Elevated convection developing along the western fringe of the synoptic front across the Big Bend region of TX should gradually become surface-based as storms migrate east into an increasingly buoyant air mass. Thunderstorms should also be focused along a more subtle boundary noted along the TX Coastal Plain in recent surface analyses. Across both regions, sufficient deep-layer shear should be in place to support a few organized cells, but mean storm motions and deep-layer shear vectors largely along the initiating boundaries should favor convective clusters with an attendant hail/wind risk. A low-end tornado threat may materialize along the boundary along the Coastal Plain where low-level flow should remain backed to the south/southeast, yielding effective SRH values between 100-150 m2/s2. However, given the potential for upscale growth, this threat is expected to be fairly limited.
Read morehttps://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_2000.html
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