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#720444
Tue 23 Apr 2024 05:53:AM
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Joined: Feb 2001
Posts: 381,903
Launch Director
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OP
Launch Director
Joined: Feb 2001
Posts: 381,903 |
SPC Apr 23, 2024 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective OutlookSPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AND WEST TEXAS...
...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms will be possible on Wednesday across parts of Oklahoma and west Texas. Isolated hail and severe gusts will be the primary hazards.
...Synopsis... An upper-level trough initially off of the southern CA/Baja coast is forecast to move inland on Wednesday, reaching the Southwest by Thursday morning. A nearly stationary front is forecast to be draped from west/north TX into parts of the lower MS Valley, with weak surface troughing expected over the central/southern Plains. Across the east, an upper-level trough is forecast to move through parts of the OH Valley into the Mid Atlantic and Northeast, as an attendant cold front sweeps through New England. Low-topped convection with locally gusty winds could accompany the front during the afternoon.
...Parts of the southern Great Plains... An uncertain Marginal Risk has been maintained from parts of west TX into OK, with some adjustments made based on latest guidance.
Elevated convection may develop or be ongoing across parts of OK Wednesday morning, within a zone of low-level warm advection along the northeastern fringe of moderate elevated buoyancy. Any such convection will tend to move southeastward through the day, north of stationary front. Steep midlevel lapse rates and marginally supportive effective shear (for convection likely based between 800-700 mb) could support an isolated hail/wind risk with any stronger semi-discrete storms.
Farther west, generally weak forcing will likely tend to limit coverage of diurnal surface-based storms. However, rather strong heating and diminishing MLCINH could support isolated development across areas of west/northwest TX near the stationary front, and southward along a weakly convergent surface trough/dryline. Moderate to locally strong buoyancy and sufficient deep-layer shear will result in a conditionally favorable environment, and an isolated supercell or two could evolve if storms can mature, with a threat for hail and localized severe gusts.
Finally, another round of elevated convection may develop from northwest TX into OK late Wednesday night into Thursday morning, as deeper moisture spreads northward in advance of the approaching upper trough. Moderate elevated buoyancy and sufficient effective shear could support an isolated hail threat within this regime.
...Southeast OK toward the ArkLaMiss region... Modest buoyancy may develop near/south of the nearly stationary front from southeast OK into the ArkLaMiss Wednesday afternoon. Elevated convection could spread southeastward north of the boundary through the day within a weak northwesterly flow regime, while isolated diurnal storm development will be possible near the boundary. Uncertainty remains regarding the intensity and coverage of convection across this region, but a strong storm or two cannot be ruled out into early evening.
..Dean.. 04/23/2024
Read morehttps://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk_0600.html
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