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#720926
Fri 26 Apr 2024 08:02:PM
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Joined: Feb 2001
Posts: 381,903
Launch Director
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Launch Director
Joined: Feb 2001
Posts: 381,903 |
SPC Apr 26, 2024 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective OutlookSPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024
Valid 262000Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MISSOURI VALLEY INTO THE OZARKS AND NORTHEAST TEXAS...
...SUMMARY... Tornadoes, including a couple of strong tornadoes, very large hail (some greater than 2 inches in diameter), and wind damage remain possible this afternoon/evening from eastern Kansas/Nebraska into Iowa, western Missouri, eastern Oklahoma, western Arkansas, and northeast Texas.
...20Z Update... Adjustments have been made to the Enhanced and Slight Risks across central/eastern NE into eastern KS/OK to account for latest observational trends and short-term model guidance. Convection has recently developed along the dryline across southeast KS, with additional development possible across north-central into east-central KS over the next couple of hours. Any supercells that can persist across this region will pose a threat for very large hail given steep mid-level lapse rates, strong deep-layer shear, and sufficient instability. A threat for tornadoes, some strong, will also exist for these areas with ample low-level shear present per recent VWPs from KTWX/KEAX. For more details on the near-term severe threat across this area, see Mesoscale Discussion 531.
A threat for strong tornadoes and large to very large hail continues across parts of NE with ongoing supercells along/near a warm front. Multiple supercells have produced tornadoes already, and strong low-level shear will favor updraft rotation and strong tornado potential with this activity through the evening as it spreads into eastern NE and eventually western IA and vicinity. Reference Mesoscale Discussion 530 for additional information.
Behind the dryline in north-central TX, elevated thunderstorms may develop late tonight into early Saturday morning. A Marginal Risk for hail has been maintained across parts of northwest TX to account for this isolated severe potential.
..Gleason.. 04/26/2024
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1142 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024/
...NE/IA/MO/KS... Water vapor loop shows a strong shortwave trough rotating across KS/NE. A deep surface low is analyzed ahead of this trough over central NE, with a dryline extending southward into central KS. A corridor of ample low-level moisture is present ahead of the dryline over southeast NE/northeast KS, where daytime heating will lead to moderate MLCAPE values and rapid thunderstorm development by mid-afternoon. Backed low-level winds and favorable shear profiles will promote supercells in the bent-back region of the low, with very large hail and tornadoes possible. These storms will progress eastward into western IA and northwest MO through the early evening. A strong tornado or two is possible in this region.
...OK/MO/AR... A large nocturnal MCS that affected much of OK has quickly weakened and departed, with rapid northward return of low-level moisture occurring in the wake of the system. By mid-afternoon, mid-upper 60s dewpoints are expected along the dryline over east-central OK. Forecast soundings show very steep mid-level lapse rates and favorable shear profiles to promote discrete supercells capable of all severe hazards, including very large hail and strong tornadoes. Storms will track northeastward into southwest MO and northwest AR this evening. CAM guidance varies on coverage of storms, but parameters appear quite strong and warrant an upgrade to ENH given the conditional risk of significant severe weather.
...Northeast TX... A third area of significant risk of severe storms lies across parts of northeast and east-central TX today. A cluster of severe/supercell storms has formed this morning to the west of Waco, TX. These storms are expected to increase in coverage through the afternoon and develop eastward across much of northeast TX. Forecast soundings show a very moist and unstable environment, with sufficient low-level and deep-layer shear for persistent supercell structures and risks of a few tornadoes and very large hail. Given the number of storms and the favorable environment, have also upgraded this narrow corridor to ENH.
Read morehttps://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_2000.html
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