SPC MD 390
MD 0390 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR TX PERMIAN BASIN VICINITY

Mesoscale Discussion 0390
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1059 PM CDT Mon Apr 08 2024

Areas affected...TX Permian Basin vicinity

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 090359Z - 090630Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorm development will be possible
overnight, with a threat of large hail.

DISCUSSION...Low-level moisture continues to stream northwestward
late this evening into portions of the TX Permian Basin region.
Meanwhile, WV and IR imagery suggests that ascent related to the
deep upper-level trough over the Southwest is beginning to
overspread the region. While timing remains uncertain, storm
development will become increasingly likely overnight, especially
near/north of a southward-moving cold front. Steep midlevel lapse
rates, MUCAPE increasing into the 1000-2000 J/kg range, and
effective shear of 40+ kts will support elevated supercell
potential, with an attendant threat of large hail in the 1.5 - 2
inch diameter range. 

Severe-storm coverage remains somewhat uncertain overnight and could
remain rather isolated, but eventual watch issuance is possible
given the potential for elevated supercells.

..Dean/Hart.. 04/09/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON   32360300 32700297 33040291 33200177 33110124 32510060
            31860073 31130112 30860168 30770276 31710295 32360300 

Read more
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0390.html